Message to George Will: Do Not Opine About Things You Know Nothing About
His first mistake:
State governments, misunderstanding markets and ravenous for revenue, exaggerate the potential windfall from taxing legalized marijuana. California thinks it might reap $1.4 billion. But Rosalie Pacula, a Rand Corp. economist, estimates that prohibition raises marijuana production costs at least 400 percent, so legalization would cause prices to fall much more than the 50 percent assumed by the $1.4 billion estimate.How did the Rand Corp figure that out? Sounds to me like they just pulled that out of their ass.
They're comparing production costs in a model that doesn't exist (wherein marijuana is legal and taxed) with a model that does (prohibition)? No shit? It's an estimate based on an estimate, and I'm supposed to be impressed?
But there's more:
Furthermore, marijuana is a normal good in that demand for it varies with price. Legalization, by drastically lowering price, will increase marijuana's public health costs, including mental and respiratory problems, and motor vehicle accidents.George, George, George. In the past ten years, you've bought more bow ties than bags of weed, so let me clue you into a dirty little secret of marijuana prices.
They are remarkably stable.
A quarter ounce of schwag will cost you about $20 bucks. A quarter ounce of kind bud (the kind you get at the dispensaries...almost all of it locally grown) will cost you about a $100. So it was 10 years ago (20 years?), and so it is today.
The scenario Will envisions, prices going down as the market is flooded with legal weed, is ludicrous to anyone who actually participates in the cannabis market.
Prices will act like prices do on other products that appeal to the connoisseur, with the good stuff commanding a premium (think Starbucks/Lafite-Rothschild wine) and the not-so-good stuff going for a discount (think Folgers/Boone's Farm).
That's how the market will form. Will prices go down? Some of them. But some will go up, too.
As for the negative side effects Will is worried about...bah. Motor vehicle accidents? Fricking motor vehicle accidents?
The majority of motor vehicle accidents are caused by people who are NOT on marijuana. What should we do about them?
And mental and respiratory problems? Look at the bow-tied conservative wanker suddenly aligning himself with the nanny-state that sacrifices individual liberty out of some vague concern for my mental and respiratory health.
I love this, though:
States attempting to use high taxes to keep marijuana prices artificially high would leave a large market for much cheaper illegal -- unregulated and untaxed -- marijuana.I see...so nothing would change.
Except that you would have the option to buy it legally. Oh the humanity!
Will's not done wanking though:
Colorado ranks sixth in the nation in identity theft, two-thirds of which is driven by the state's $1.4 billion annual methamphetamine addiction.An alarming statistic, no doubt, but what does that have to do with legalizing marijuana?
Short answer: Nothing.
[Attorney General Suthers] is loath to see complete legalization of marijuana at a moment when new methods of cultivation are producing plants in which the active ingredient, THC, is "seven, eight times as concentrated" as it used to be.Yeah, I've heard that before. And it's probably true.
But like super-concentrated Tide, with super-THC-concentrated pot, you smoke less of it. Unless you're an idiot like George Will.




